So here we are less than 48 hours from the announcement of the 2012 Oscar nominations. It’s been an interesting, yet predictable, season to date as “The Artist” (my pick for the best film of 2011) appears poised to run away from the field and claim best picture.
But who will it face? Perhaps, more importantly with the new voting rules in place, how many will make the final cut? There are questions in other categories as well. Who will make the cut in a loaded best actress field? Which movie will Jessica Chastain get nominated for? And will Steven Spielberg sneak in a best director nomination?
Here is my predictions for Tuesday morning’s nominations.
Best Picture
First of all the big question, how many? The Academy can select anywhere from five to 10 films, depending on the percentage of first place votes. I’m going to be conservative and say seven films get in.
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Moneyball
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
If it is more than seven, look out for these three films: War Horse, Bridesmaids, and The Tree of Life
Best Actor
This is a category with four locks
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney,The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I think the fifth spot comes down to Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar or Oldman, but I’m leaning Oldman
because of the BAFTAS nomination.
A possible wildcard though is SAG nominee Demian Bichir for A Better Life
Best Actress
Again it’s a category that has four locks (sadly no room for great work from Elizabeth Olsen in “Martha Marcy May Marlene” or Charlize Theron in “Young Adult”)
The four sure things:
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Spot No. 5 is between Tilda Swinton for “We Need to Talk About Kevin” and Mara. Swinton has won before and has gotten plenty of buzz for “Kevin.” She probably gets a slight edge, but I’m going to go with my heart here and pick Mara. “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” should be a best picture nominee, and if they like it enough to nominate I believe they will reward Mara as well
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
This is a pretty easy category, as I firmly expect all five to be announced Tuesday morning. If I had to pick spoilers I’d consider Armie Hammer for “J. Edgar,” Max von Sydnow for “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” or Jim Broadbent for “The Iron Lady.”
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Three are locked in, with Woodley and McCarthy on shakiest ground. You could see Janet McTeers for “Albert Nobbs” or Carey Mulligan for “Shame” slip in.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Four appear locked in with spot 5 between Fincher and Spielberg. Fincher got a DGA nod, but Spielberg is beloved. I’m going with my heart again.
mcompton
